WEAKENING WITH IT. WE WILL ALSO CHIME IN WITH TALK. DR. ALLISON NUGENT AND A BIT. I YOU ARE RIGHT COME I COULD GO RIGHT OVER THE CHANNEL AND NOT MAKE LANDFALL. IT IS KIND OF A WEIGHT-AND-C SITUATION. DAVID: YES, WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT. — IT COULD BE A WAIT AND SEE SITUATION. WE WILL CHECK BACK IN JUST A BIT. FOR NOW, I’M THE DID YOU DAVID HUMANS. PLEASE SEND IT BACK TO YOU . LET US TO A FOLLOW UP WITH YOU IF WE CAN, DR. NUGENT. THE REASON I DID NOT HAVE YOU EARLIER WITH ME WAS BECAUSE SHE DID NOT HAVE YEAR PEACE LIKE I DO, SO SHE WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO HEAR THE QUESTIONS — AN EARPIECE. HE HAD SOME GOOD QUESTIONS, DAVID, ABOUT THE PATH OF THE STORM. IN BETWEEN THE TWO MOUNTAINS, DO THINK THERE IS ANY INTERACTION AS FAR AS THE TRACK, AND AS FAR AS A POTENTIAL INTENSITY, COULD THIS BE SQUEEZED INTO THAT CHANNEL, MAYBE? YES, ABSOLUTELY THERE ARE SOME STUDIES I READ ON TAIWAN. , AS WELL AS ANOTHER ONE ON DOMINICA AND THE CARIBBEAN. WHERE IF YOU HAVE A ROTATING STORM COMING NEAR ISLAND TERRAIN, YOU GET LOCAL HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE WIND IS. SO IF THE WIND IS HITTING MAUI AND HITTING THIS SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND, YOU CAN GET HIGH PRESSURE HERE AND LOW PRESSURE HERE. . YOU COULD HAVE THE STORM CENTER JOB TO WHERE THE LOW PRESSURE IS. SO IT IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY . THE ISLAND INTERACTION WITH THE STORM CAN AFFECT WHERE THE STORM GOES. THE OTHER THING I WANTED TO POINT OUT IS THAT AS A TROPICAL STORM WEAKENS, SOMETIMES IT IS HARD TO KNOW WHERE THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS. SOMETIMES IT IS REALLY HARD TO IDENTIFY THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER. SO IT IS LIKE A GUESSTIMATE, YOU DON’T EVEN HAVE AND I WERE YOU CAN LOOK AT IT. IF I MAY SUGGEST AN ANALOGY FOR PEOPLE AT HOME TO LOOK AT THIS, IS THAT THIS IS A RIVER OF WATER, OK, THIS: IS A RIVER OF WATER, THIS PATH IS A RIVER OF WATER. YOU HAVE A HUGE ROCK ON ONE SIDE, AND A HUGE ROCK ON THE OTHER. AND AS THE RIVER OF WATER APPROACHES BOTH ROCKS, THE WATER GETS SQUEEZED IN AND SOMETIMES A BIT ACCELERATED. YOU HAVE TO THINK OF AIR AS FLUID, WHETHER WE THINK OF AIR AS FLUID, AND NOT SO MUCH AS AIR IT SELF, BUT THAT KIND OF EFFECT. YES, THE SAME THING YOU SEE WITH TRADEWINDS ACCELERATING IN BETWEEN THE GAPS IN ISLANDS. WE COULD SEE LOCAL ACCELERATIONS JUSTIN: SOMETIMES THE FORECAST MODELS DO NOT PICK UP ON IT BECAUSE IT IS A MICROCLIMATE. THING THAT IS A GOOD POINT. MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE A GRADE YOU AVERAGE THAT TERRAIN OF OAHU IN ONE BOX, A BIT EXTREME, BUT IT IS NOT CAPTURING ALL THE CONTOURS AND DETAILS IN THE TERRAIN. SO YOU ARE DEFINITELY NOT GETTING THAT IN THE MODEL. JUSTIN: ADDITIONALLY, WE HAVEN’T HAD A SYSTEM COME FROM THIS FAR NORTH, THIS HIGH LATITUDE. ESAU CAME FROM THE SOUTH, IT LANE CAME FROM THE SOUTH, WE HAVE HAD SYSTEMS COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH, BUT FOLKS, THIS IS HISTORIC. ACTUALLY HAD A SYSTEM COME IN FROM THIS HIGH LATITUDE AND THIS ANGLE, FROM BASICALLY A TRADE WIND DIRECTION. PREHISTORIC. YEAH, IT IS DEFINITELY AN INTERESTING TRACK. JUSTIN: BY THE WAY, KEEP IN MIND. IF IT DOES HIT PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND, IT WILL NOT DO SO TONIGHT, BUT IT IS PRETTY CLOSE, THE NEXT DAY. SO, VERY INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS. LET US LOOK AT THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION. THE SYSTEM IS 125 MILES EAST OF MALI. ARE YOU SURPRISED? BECAUSE I AM PRETTY SAID FASCINATED BY THE NEW TRACK CHANGE. SURE SHE’LL HAVE A NEW THEORY ON THE TRACK CHANGE. JUSTIN:OHHH JUCIY! EU ARE VISUALIZING IT AS A CHANGE, BUT I SEE A SMALL AS A FOCUSING. ALSO NARROWER. SO IT MAKES SENSE THAT AS THE STORM GETS SLOWER, THERE ARE ARE ISLANDS THAT WERE IN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY BEFORE BUT NOW THEY AREN’T. JUSTIN: A GOOD POINT, WE ARE DEALING WITH A CLOSER AREA IN A SMALL AMOUNT OF TIME. THESE ARE LIKE 12 HOUR INTERVALS, RIGHT? YES, AND WE DO SEE MORE OF THE ISLAND IN THE CONE OF UNCERTAINTY THIS TIME PERIODIC LAST TIME, IT WAS WIDER AND MORE FURTHER NORTH, BUT THIS TIME IT LOOKS MORE FOCUSED. JUSTIN: AND SHE IS ABSOLUTELY CORRECT, IT. JUSTIN: THERE IS A CONTRACTION OF THE CONE AND WITH IT, A SLIGHT SHIFT TO THE SOUTH. YEAR, AND WE HAVE ALSO SEEN THE SPEED BEING REALLY VARIABLE TODAY. AND HAS INCREASED, AND IT HAS DECREASED. WE HAVE EVEN SEEN IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY COME THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER ACCELERATING WESTWARD. I HAVE AN ANALOGY FOR THIS ONE. SAY YOU ARE IN A SPEEDING CAR AND GOING REALLY FAST, IT IS PRETTY EASY TO PREDICT WHERE YOU WILL BE IN 30 SECONDS, BECAUSE HE ARE MOVING SO QUICKLY, BUT BIKE AND YOU START TO SLOW DOWN — RIDING A BIKE AND HE START TO SLOW DOWN. YOU MAY NOT KNOW WHERE YOU WILL BE IN 30 SECONDS BECAUSE YOU COULD FALL OVER DO YOU DO YOUR SPEED, OR YOU COULD BE WOBBLY. SO AS THE STORM SLOWS DOWN, IT IS BECOMING MORE ERRATIC. ALSO, AS IT WEAKENS, THE SPHERE OF INFLUENCE IS DIFFERENT. WHEN IT IS DEEPER, THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MORE IMPORTANT. AS IT WEAKENS, AND GETS LESS DEEP, AND LOWER-LEVEL WINDS ARE MORE IMPORTANT. JUSTIN: SO WHAT YOU’RE SAYING, IT IS HARDER TO FORECAST. [LAUGHTER] WE CAN JUST SAY, #IT’S IMPLICATED. [LAUGHTER] JUSTIN: OK. A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT SCENARIOS HERE. SCENARIO NUMBER ONE. THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM STAYS DIRECTLY IN IT THAT CHANNEL AND DOES NOT MAKE LANDFALL. SO THAT MEANS LET THE LAST TROPICAL SYSTEM, OFFICIALLY VERIFIED FOR SATELLITE AND DATA, WOULD BE RESELL AND DERBY, AND E CELL CAME IN WITH 140 MPH WINDS. IF THIS WERE TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE BIG ISLAND, AND AT THIS ARE LOOKING AT A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM. SO THIS WOULD BE THE BIG ISLAND ON RECORD, WOULD STILL NOT HAVE A HURRICANE HIT. THANKFULLY, THE ONLY ELEMENT TO HAVE ONE IS KAUAI. MOLLY WOULD NOT HAVE BEEN HIT BY ANY CYCLONE OFFICIALLY SINCE THE SATELLITE ERA. SO THERE ARE A FEW HISTORICAL THINGS THAT COULD BE GOING ON HERE. BUT IT COULD VERY WELL STAY OFFSHORE, AS MUCH AS IT GRAZES MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. IT IS ON OF THOSE THINGS THAT IS OF THING. DID YOU HAVE SOMETHING TO ADD? YOU SAID SOMETHING THAT THEY WOULD NOT BE HAPPENING TONIGHT, IT WILL ACTUALLY BE HAPPENING TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT, MAYBE NOT BEFORE MIDNIGHT BUT AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALSO, DEPENDING ON WHERE THE STORM GOES, THE FASTEST WINDS WILL BE ON THIS SIDE. THIS SIDE WILL BE A BIT WEAKER, BECAUSE THE STORM IS SPINNING IN THIS DIRECTION. SO THOSE WINDS ADD TOGETHER IN THE STORM MOTION, AND ON THIS SITE, THEY SUBTRACT. JUSTIN: 45 PLUS EIGHT? YES, 45 PLUS EIGHT, THEN 45 MINUS EIGHT. ALSO FOR THE WIND PERSPECTIVE, AS THE STORM COMES THROUGH, AS IT TAKES A CENTER TRACK, YOU WILL SEE WINDS COMING FROM THIS DIRECTION AND AS IT MOVES FORWARD, IT WILL MOVE MORE SOUTHERLY. SO AS THE STORM MOVES, HE WILL SEE PRETTY BIG CHANGES IN THE WIND DIRECTION AS WELL. ON THE BIG ISLAND, YOU HAVE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH, AND THEN MOVING TO THE WEST — COMING FROM THE WEST. IMAGINE THE CYCLONE MOVING WITH YOU, SO YOU CAN SEE WHERE YOUR WINDS ARE. JUSTIN: YES, HE HAVE TO ORIENT YOURSELF, ORIENT YOUR ISLAND TO THE WIND DIRECTION. IF THE SYSTEM IS SPINNING WOBBLING. YEAH, IT MAKES IT A LITTLE TRICKY. I THINK MOST PEOPLE IN THE LOCAL AREAS ARE USED TO TRADE WINDS AND THEY KNOW WHAT TYPES OF ACCELERATIONS TO EXPECT, DIFFERENT. KEEP THAT IN MIND, THERE WILL BE LOCAL TERRAIN EFFECTS THAT WILL AFFECT YOUR SYSTEM. IN THIS CASE, WE ARE JUST TALKING ABOUT WIND. BUT SOME OF THOSE WIND GUSTS ARE PRETTY HIGH. JUSTIN: YEAH, THEY ARE. AND THE BEST SPREAD BETWEEN THE GUSTS, HAS WIDENED. IS THIS A FORMULA? OR? NO, I DON’T THINK SO. JUSTIN: I DID NOT KNOW IS A WAS AN EXACT FORMULA. IT SEEMS LIKE ONLY A 10 MILE-PER-HOUR DIFFERENCE SOMETIMES IN WIND GUSTS AND SUSTAINED WINDS, BUT THIS IS — WE ARE TALKING A BIGGER MARGIN YES, TO BE HONEST, I AM NOT SURE. I KNOW THAT WHEN THEY DO RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS, THEY DO SIGNS, WHETHER SENSORS TO THE STORM, AND –WEATHER SENSORS DOWN INTO THE STORM, AND IN THIS CASE, IT COULD BE SOME SODA FORMULA,. JUSTIN: BUT I AM NOT SURE. JUSTIN: FAIR ENOUGH. — SOME SORT OF FORMULA. SO AT THIS POINT, THE STRONGEST WINDS COULD STILL BE MAUI COUNTY , RIGHT? RIGHT. MAYBE WE SHOULD TALK ABOUT TROPICAL STORM STRUCTURES. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE NEAR THE CENTER AND AS YOU GO OUT OF IT, THAT PRESSURE INCREASES AND THE WINDS WEAKEN. SO HERE, WHERE THE CIRCULATION IS, THAT IS WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE. BUT AS YOU SAW TALKING TO DAVID, HE WILL START SEEING THE WINDS PICK UP. ALL THE DEEP CONVECTION, ALL THE TALL CLOUDS WITH LOTS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ON THE DOWN SIDE, THE SIDE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BLOWING TOWARDS. THIS WAY. YES, SO I THINK PEOPLE WILL SEE THE WIND IMPACTS FIRST, THEN THE RAIN IMPACTS WILL LAG BEHIND A LITTLE LATER. JUSTIN: YES, LATER IN THE DAY, THUNDERSTORM THERE. I WILL GO THROUGH A FEW SLIDES TO SEE OF THE FUTURE RADAR GOT UPDATED. OF SURE OF MALI AT 9 A.M. TOMORROW MORNING. AND THIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE THE TRACK, THINGS COULD BE DIFFERENT. IF ONE OF THE STORM’S IS LOCALIZED OVER ONE OF THE ISLANDS, AND YOU CAN SEE FLASH FLOODING AND REALLY HEAVY RAINS IN SOME AREAS. JUSTIN: THAT IS WHAT I AM REALLY WORRIED ABOUT THE MOST. IS THAT IF THIS THUNDERSTORM — LOOKING THUNDERSTORM. THE ONE THAT POPPED UP SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN AREA, WE SAW THAT THUNDERSTORM BE BORN. JUSTIN: I WILL TRY TO GET A BETTER ANGLE RIGHT NEXT TO YOU THERE. THAT IS THE THUNDERSTORM CELL WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THAT WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS, JUST SAYING, WOW! IT POPPED UP OUT OF NOWHERE? DR. NUGENT: YOU CAN SEE, IT IS HERE, MOVING THIS WAY. AND THIS ONE JUST GROWS AND GETS REALLY BIG, REALLY FAST. JUSTIN: AND KEEP IN MIND, FOLKS, DOESN’T MEAN THAT WE WILL HAVE A HERE, BECAUSE THE THUNDERSTORMS DO POP UP, DISOBEYS, POP UP, DISSIPATE. WHAT WE ARE PRETTY SURE WE ARE GOING TO HAVE IS VERY SIMILAR, ENVIRONMENTAL UNSTABLE CONDITIONS MOVING TOWARD THE ISLAND. WE ARE PRETTY SURE WE HAVE THE MOISTURE AND WHEN HE HAVE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND MOISTURE, YOU HAVE A PROBLEM. NOW, WE HAVE MOUNTAINS. DR. NUGENT: YES, YOU HAVE THE MOUNTAINS TO PROVIDE LIFTING, SO YOU CAN REALIZE THE INSTABILITY. ONE OTHER THING COME OUT WINDS IN THE STORM, AS THEY ARE PRETTY EASY TO PREDICT — WHEN A STORM THE IMPACTS. THE WHEN YOU HAVE SOMETHING LIKE THIS, THE CONVECTION IS SPORADIC. SO IT IS HARD TO SAY — WE DON’T KNOW THAT THERE WILL BE A THUNDERSTORM HERE OR HERE TOMORROW, WHAT WE KNOW IS THAT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR HEAVY RAIN. ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE THERE. JUSTIN: OK. SO THE BIG TAKE AWAY FROM BIG ISLAND AND MAUI RESIDENTS RIGHT NOW IS THAT WE SEE IT OUT THERE WE KNOW THAT THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE OUT THERE WE KNOW THAT THERE IS AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WE KNOW IT IS HEADED TO AT LEAST THE HEAVIEST RAIN, POTENTIALLY TO MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. WE KNOW THE MOUNTAINS CAN EXTRACT IT. AND GIVING FAIR WARNING, MAYBE IT DOESN’T HAPPEN, BEST CASE SCENARIO, IT DOESN’T HAPPEN. THAT IS REALLY ALL THAT WE CAN DO. DR. NUGENT: YES, I REALLY HOPE IT DOESN’T HAPPEN ON THE BIG ISLAND. I CANNOT EVEN THINK ABOUT THAT. THEY HAVE ALREADY GOTTEN TOO MUCH RAIN. JUSTIN: JUST TALKING TO MY FRIENDS WHO LIVE IN HILO AND THE BIG ISLAND, I THINK EVEN 24 HOURS AGO ONE THE TRACK WAS SHIFTING CONSIDERABLY TO THE NORTH, THEY HAVE TO BE FEELING MUCH BETTER. LIKE WOW, WE MIGHT CATCH A BREAK. THEN HE SEE NEWS LIKE THIS AND IT IS LIKE UGH, OH MY GOODNESS. ALL ISLANDS COULD SEE HEAVY RAIN, AND THE FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL IS THERE. STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE AN MAUI COUNTY. I WILL HAVE TO LOOK AT THE GRAPHS TIZZY IF THE WINDS START PICKING UP. YOU THINK THERE IS A POSSIBILITY — I THINK IF PRODUCER TOLD ME THAT THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WAS A DROPPED FOR HAWAII. LET ME VERIFY. IT WAS? THANK YOU, TINA. COURTNEY AND HE HOW HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING, SO COURTNEY RESIDENTS, HE WILL NOT FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE WIND. YES, BUT REMEMBER, THOSE TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE ONLY RELATED TO THE WINDS, SO YOU COULD STILL GET HEAVY RAIN. JUSTIN: JUST ONE LESS THING TO WORRY ABOUT? DR. NUGENT: RIGHT, WIND, NO PERIODICALLY AGO YOU COULD STILL GET HEAVY RAIN. JUSTIN: WILL THANK YOU SO MUCH. WE JUST WANT FOLKS AT HOME TO KNOW THAT IT IS PAST HER BEDTIME. 11:00 WAS THE CUT OFF, BUT SHE IS HAVING FUN, AND WE DO HAVE FUN. [LAUGHTER] SO IF[LAUGHTER] WE DON’T GET HER HOME, WE WILL NOT BE ABLE TO GET HER BACK NEXT TIME. THANK YOU VERY MUCH, DR. ALLISON NUGENT. YOU BROKE THAT DOWN FOR US AND YOU ARE DOING A GREAT SERVICE TO THE COMMUNITY END OF THE STATE OF HAWAII WITH YOUR KNOWLEDGE. WE APPRECIATED, AND I AM SURE THE VIEWING AUDIENCE AT HOME APPRECIATES IT O AS WELL? DR. NUGENT: THANKS FOR LETTING WE HANG OUT. JUSTIN: RIGHT, SHE HAS CLASS