I’M RUDABEH. AND THIS IS OUR CONTINUOUS COVERAGE. IT’S 5:00 AND A NEW ADVISORY FOR IRMA. LET’S GET OVER TO CRAIG SETZER. YOU JUST GOT THAT INFORMATION. IT JUST CAME IN I. TRIED TO SLAM THE GRAPHICS TOGETHER. I HAVE TO MOVE THE LITTLE POINTS AROUND. LET’S FIRST TALK ABOUT WHAT’S GOING ON THEN WHAT THE NEW ADVISORY SHOWS US. FIRST OFF, WE WERE GOING TO BE TALKING IN THE COMING DAY. THE LARGE TODAY AND LONGITUDE. LATITUDE WAS 22.0. IT’S 22.1. SO STILL GOING MORE WEST THAN NORTH. WE CAN ALSO TELL THAT BY THE DIRECTION OF MOTION THERE. 280 SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST. AND THE REASON I’M SHOWING THIS AS OPPOSED TO JUST THE BIG W THERE IS BECAUSE EVERY FIVE OR 10 DEGREES THAT IT TURNS, POTENTIALLY HAS AN IMPACT IN SOUTH FLORIDA AS TO WHERE THE WORST OF THE WEATHER WOULD GO. SPEEDS 12 MILES PER HOUR. IT’S GRADUALLY SLOWING DOWN. ONE OF THE THINGS WE KNOW ABOUT TROPICAL CYCLONES AND HURRICANES AND TROPICAL STORMS, AS THEY ROUND HIGH PRESSURE FEATURE OR STEERING CURRENT IN THE ATMOSPHERE AS THEY ANTICIPATE A TURN, AS THEY ARE CARRIED ALONG THROUGH A TURN THEY SHOW DOWN A LITTLE BIT. SO THEY’RE GOING THIS WAY, THEN THEY COME TIE A POINT WHERE THE STEERING WINDS STARTING TO LICE EN UP, GIVING THEM THE OPPORTUNITY TO GO NORTH. SO THAT SPEED COMING DOWN, IS EXPECTED. THERE’S NO SURPRISES HERE. THIS IS ALL EXPECTED WHAT IS CONCERNING IS THAT THE WIND IS STILL SO HIGH. WHEN IT CAME DOWN TO CATEGORY 4 TODAY, AND I SAW SOME HEADLINES IN PLACES THAT SAID IRMA DECREASES THE CATEGORY 4. THE WINDS HAD ONLY DROPPED ABOUT 10 MILES PER HOUR. AND WE’RE STILL UP IN THIS RANGE. JUST SHY OF CATEGORY 5. CATEGORY5 IS 157 MILES PER HOUR. WE’RE RIGHT AT CATEGORY 5 OR JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW IT. THAT IS THE WIND IN THE CORE, NOT THE WHOLE STORM. JUST IN THE CORE. THE REASON THAT WE TALK SO MUCH ABOUT THE CORE, THE EYE WALL, IS BECAUSE WHERE THAT GOES, THAT’S WHERE THERE’S THE MOST DAMAGE. THAT’S WHERE IF IT’S OVER WATER APPROACHING LAND THERE’S THE GREATEST STORM SURGE. THAT’S WHERE IF IT GOES OVER LAND, THERE WILL BE THE MOST DESTRUCTION. THAT’S THE MOST DANGEROUS PART. BUT BECAUSE WE DON’T KNOW BECAUSE IT’S ROUNDING THIS HIGH PRESSURE BLOCK IN THE ATMOSPHERE, WE DON’T KNOW EXACTLY WHERE IT’S GOING TO MAKE THAT TURN, WE HAVE TO PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A CATEGORY 4 STORM. SO LETS GO INTO MOTION AND I’LL SHOW YOU WHAT THE FORECAST TRACK IS. THIS WAS THE SATURDAY EVENING 8:00 P.M. TIME FRAME. VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF CUBA. NOW, THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THERE MAY BE SOME LAND INTERACTION AND THAT MIGHT ALSO IMPACT INTENSITY BUT THIS IS WHAT REALLY SHOULD JUMP OUT TO EVERYBODY. THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS TO GO BACK UP TO CATEGORY 5 AND GO THROUGH THE KEYS BECAUSE THE ONLY WAY TO GET TO FLORIDA UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WAY COMING FROM THE SOUTH IS THROUGH THE KEYS. SO I THINK IT CAN’T BE IMPRESSED UPON PEOPLE ENOUGH, ESPECIALLY IN THE KEYS, HOW BAD OF A SITUATION THIS IS. THE LAST TIME THERE WAS A CATEGORY 5 HIT THE KEYS, IT WAS IN 1935 CALLED THE GREAT LABOR DAY HURRICANE. HUNDREDS AND HUNDREDS OF PEOPLE WERE KILLED. WHAT HAPPENED WAS THE STORM FORMED INTERSECTION BAHAMAS, IT MARCHED EAST US INTENSIFIED VERY QUICKLY. A SMALL, SMALL HURRICANE. KIND OF LIKE AN ANDREW. IT CAME THROUGH THE UPPER KEYS, THERE WAS A TRAIN THAT THEY SENT DOWN FROM MIAMI TO TRY TO RESCUE PEOPLE. THEY HAD A BUNCH OF WORKERS WORKING ON A PROJECT TO BUILD BRIDGES DOWN THERE. THEY SENT THE TRAIN DOWN AND THE STORM SURGE CAME OVER AND IT WASHED THE TRAIN OFF THE TRACKS. LAID ON THE SIDE, PEOPLE IN THE TRAIN LITERALLY STOOD ON THE CARS ON THE SEATS IN THE CARS OF THE TRAIN TRYING TO KEEP THEIR HEAD ABOVE WATER. THE STORM WAS SO POWERFUL THEY FOUND BODIES FROM KEYS OVER HERE, IN SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. THEY WERE WASHED ACROSS THE BAY. THIS IS AN EXTREMELY SERIOUS SITUATION. FOR THOSE IN THE KEYS WHO SAY, I’VE RIDDEN THEM OUT, YOU MAY NOT RIDE THIS ONE OUT. THIS ONE ALSO MAY TAKE OUT THE BRIDGES. THE MAYOR YESTERDAY IN KEY WEST WAS TALKING ABOUT LOSING CONNECTION WITH THE MAINLAND. THAT THEY COULD BUILD BOAT BRIDGES AND THINGS LIKE THAT. THE POSSIBILITY IS VERY REAL THAT THE 7-MILE BRIDGE OR PARTS OF IT, COULD BE JUST WASHED OFF ITS FOUNDATION. AND SEPARATING THE LOWER KEYS FROM THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. OR EVEN THE MIDDLE KEYS QUITE POSSIBLY. THIS IS A VERY SERIOUS SITUATION I. DON’T KNOW THE STATUS OF EVACUATIONS. I’VE BEEN FOLLOWING THE MEET ROLLING A LITTLE MORE CLOSELY U.Y THERE’S EVACUATIONS GOING ON YOU NEED TO GET OUT OF THE KEYS. I WAS GOING TO ASK YOU ABOUT THAT. WE SAW SOME PEOPLE AS LATE AS LAST NIGHT THERE WERE MANDATORY EVACUATIONS IN THE KEYS AND KEY WEST PEOPLE PLANNING TO STAY THERE. THEY WERE DRINKING AT BARE AND PLANNING TO TOUGH IT OUT. OBVIOUSLY, A HORRIBLE IDEA. BUT FOR PEOPLE IN THE KEYS WHO ARE WATCHING US RIGHT NOW WITH THIS LATEST ADVISORY, WHAT’S THE ADMINISTRATIVE LEAVE VICE NOW? WELL, GET OUT. I MEAN, NUMBER 1, YOU’RE NOT GOING TO SURVIVE THE STORM SURGE EVENT BECAUSE THAT’S WHAT KILLS PEOPLE. IT’S NOT A RAIN FLOOD. THIS IS THE OCEAN COMING OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN AND INTO FLORIDA BAY HERE. AND YOU MAY NOT SURVIVE THE WIND. ALTHOUGH VERY FEW DEATHS OCCUR FROM THE WIND DIRECTLY. ONLY ONE IN 10 ARE FROM THE WIND. BUT THIS IS A TREMENDOUS NOW STORM SURGE EVENT. THIS HAS GREAT IMPLICATIONS ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST. THIS MOUND OF WATER, THAT’S GOING TO BE RUSHING ALONG WITH THE CENTER THERE IN THE EYE WALL, THE CORE OF THE STORM IS GOING TO RUSHY WASH UP AGAINST THE SOUTHWEST COAST. THERE COULD BE VERY, VERY DEEP INUNDATION. THIS IS NOT VERY HEAVILY POPULATED. AS WE SAW WITH CHARLEY AND STUFF. MARCO ISLAND VERY MUCH URGED THE GUN. LET ME ANSWER THE QUESTION. IS THIS GOOD NEWS FOR US? BECAUSE WELL, LOOK, WE’RE ALMOST OUT OF THE CONE. EVERYBODY AT HOME SHOULD SHAKE THEIR HEAD NO. WE’RE STILL GOING TO FEEL A HURRICANE HERE. UNFORTUNATELY, THEY MAY FEEL IT MORE SEVERELY IN THE KEYS AND JUST WEST OF HERE. RIGHT NOW, AND I DIDN’T CHECK THE LATEST ADVISORY. HAD THE EYE 40 MILES WIDE. THAT’S A 40-MILE SWATH OR 50- MILE SWATH OF 150 MILE-PER-HOUR WINDS MOVING ALONG AND JUST CREATING DESTRUCTION WHEREVER IT GOES. SO BACK TO OUR MESSAGE OF WHEN ARE WE GOING TO KNOW WHERE IT’S GOING TO GO, THE CORE? THAT’S TOMORROW NIGHT. I WANT TO TALK TO YOU ABOUT STORM SURGE AS WE LOOK AT THE SORT OF THEING WEST WARDING OF THAT CONE RIGHT THERE. WE HAVE A LOT OF VIEWERS OUT HERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA WHO LIVE IN WESTERN BROWARD, WESTON, OF COURSE, AND PARKLAND AND SUNRISE, ALL OF THOSE AREAS UP THERE. DOES THIS MEAN IF IT DOES SHIFT WEST AND IS MORE OF A SORT OF A DIRECT HIT ON THE SOUTHWEST COAST, THAT THE PEOPLE IN WEST BROWARD IN OUR VIEWING AREA ARE GOING TO FIND THEMSELVES IN MORE TROUBLE? RIGHT. SO HURRICANES HAVE WHAT WE CALL A GRADIENTS TO THE WIND. MEANING THAT IT GETS STRONGER STRONGER. SOME OF THEM HAVE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE CENTER. UNFORTUNATELY, WHEN A HURRICANE MAKES A TURN HAS SOME LAND INTERACTIONS AND STARTING TO GO NORTH LIKE THIS THE WIND FIELD MAY SPREAD OUT. WE DON’T KNOW FOR SURE. WE’LL HAVE A BETTER IDEA WHEN THE HURRICANE MAKES THIS TURN. THIS IS TOMORROW NIGHT. THE HURRICANE HUNT IS ARE FLYING THIS THING LIKE CRAZY AND THEY WILL TELL US HOW BIG THAT WIND FIELD IS. PROBABLY BY TOMORROW NIGHT. WE’RE STILL 24 HOURS AWAY. WE’LL HAVE AN IDEA ABOUT WESTERN BROWARD, WESTERN MIAMI- DADE. IT OF IS IT GOING TO BE MORE INLAND TYPE OF EVENT? WE STILL CAN’T RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE LATER MODELS THIS EVENING START TO COME BACK EAST WITH IT, AGAIN. SO THE BOTTOM LINE HERE, I KNOW I’M KIND OF GOTTEN A SERIOUS FACE BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE MESSAGE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA HAS NOT CHANGED AT ALL. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR HURRICANE EVENT IN SOUTH FLORIDA. OF COURSE, SOMEWHERE IN THE KEYS BECAUSE GUESS WHAT, THE KEYS STRETCH OUT FROM KEY WEST ALL THE WAY UP TO ELIOTT KEY UP THERE IN BISCAYNE BAY. THEY COVER THE ENTIRE CONE. SO THE KEYS SOMEWHERE IN THE KEYS THE CORE IS GOING TO GO. BUT WE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CONE THERE, THAT JUST MEANS THAT WE’RE ON THE EDGE WHERE IT’S POSSIBLE FOR THE CORE TO GO. SO LET ME JUST MOVE ALONG HERE REAL QUICKLY AND SHOW YOU ONE MORE GRAPHIC. THIS IS GOING TO BE — AND I GUESS I SHOULD STRESS THIS A LITTLE BIT MORE. THIS IS NOT ONLY OUR PROBLEM. THIS IS GOING TO BE THE ENTIRE STATE’S PROBLEM. IT’S GOING TO BE A STORM SURGE FLOOD EVENT, ESPECIALLY IF THE STORM STAYS JUST OFF SHORE. BUT EVEN ON SHORE, ONCE THAT CENTER PASSES TO THE NORTH, THE WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO AN ON SHORE NEW YEAR’S EVE AND THE WATER’ GOING TO COME RUSHING IN BEHIND THE STORM. I HAVEN’T BEEN ABLE TO TALK TO THE FOLKS IN TAMPA. I’M SURE THEY’RE UNDER EVACUATION ORDERS. THEY’VE GOT TO BE. THIS IS A VERY, VERY LIFE- THREATENING SITUATION. ALSO ON THE EAST COAST. THE WIND FIELD IS SO BIG THERE’S THE STORM SURGE UP THE EAST COAST. FOR OUR FRIENDS THAT MAY BE WATCHING NORTH FLORIDA, THE THREAT IS STILL THERE IN THE CAROLINAS. ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST, AND EVEN IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. AND THEN DEEPER UP INTO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE’S RAINFALL THREAT WITH THE SYSTEM UP THERE. LET ME SHOW YOU A COUPLE MORE GRAPHICS. THIS IS THIS THING I’VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THIS HURRICANE FORCE WIND GRAPHIC. IT SHOWS THE PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. YOU CAN SEE THE NUMBERS EXTREMELY HIGH IN THE MIDDLE KEYS. DOWN TO KEY WEST. YESTERDAY, KEY WEST NUMBER WAS 12. LOOK AT IT NOW. 54. SO PEOPLE THAT WERE THINKING OH, WE’RE NOT GOING TO HAVE A HURRICANE AND WE SAID, YOU KNOW, THE POSSIBILITY IT COULD SHIFT WEST. LOOKS LIKE THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF THAT POSSIBILITY NOW. RIGHT INTO NAPLES, FORT MYERS, THESE AREAS HERE, REALLY COULD FEEL THE BRUNT OF THIS AREA. SO UP THE EAST COAST THERE, YOU CAN SEE THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES, THEY’VE GONE DOWN JUST A LITTLE BIT. BUT REMEMBER, KEY WEST YESTERDAY WAS 12. WE’VE BEEN UP TO 54 OR 56. WE’RE NOW DOWN TO 23. WE COULD GO BACK UP IF THE KEN SHIFTS A LITTLE BIT. WE SHOULDN’T GET TOO CUFF OF COMFORTABLE IN THIS FEELING THAT THIS IS A WEST WARD SHIFT. THE STORM IS STILL 36 HOURS AWAY. THIS IS NOT A TIME TO RELAX AT ALL. CRAIG, I JUST CAN’T STOP LOOKING AT THE KEYS ON THE GRAPHICS. JUST LOOKS SO DEVASTATING SO WHAT — GIVE US AN IDEA OF THE AFTERMATH OF THE STORMS. YOU MENTIONED THE BRIDGES COULD BE WIPED OUT. HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FIRST RESPONDERS TO GET THERE. A LONG TIME TO GET AID TO SOUTH FLORIDA IN GENERAL. I CAN’T IMAGINE GETTING TO THE ISLANDS IN THE KEYS, WHAT’S LEFT OF THEM. THE INITIAL RESPONSE WILL BE BY AIR. THE COAST GUARD DOES AN AMAZING JOB AFTER A HURRICANE GETTING DOWN IN BAD WEATHER AND TRYING TO BE THE FIRST ON THE SCENE TO TAKE CARE OF IT. BUT YOU KNOW, THERE’S A LOT — IF YOU DRIVE THROUGH THE KEYS, THE KEYS — IT’S A FISHING KIND OF THING HERE. SO THERE’S A LOT OF BOATS IN